Episode 180

full
Published on:

9th Oct 2025

180: The 10 MOST CLUTCH Quarterbacks in NFL History (Backed by Data Science)

Who’s the most clutch quarterback in NFL historyTom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, or someone completely unexpected? We’ll use Python + Data Science to figure it out. 

👉 Try Sphinx for free - https://www.sphinx.ai

⏱️ TIMESTAMPS

00:00 - Who’s the most clutch QB?

00:40 - Python + Sphinx AI: analyzing 1M NFL plays

02:00 - Defining “clutch” in football (data-driven approach)

03:15 - “TV Clutch” Top 10

07:50 - Using AI to processes play-by-play data

11:10 - Advanced Clutch Factor

17:00 - Advanced Top 10

24:30 - Build your own analysis

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Transcript
Speaker:

everyone thinks

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they know who the most clutch quarterback in NFL

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history is Tom Brady with his Super Bowl comebacks

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Josh Allen in the playoffs

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or Aaron Rodgers with impossible throws

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everyone has opinions but what does the data say

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well I'm a data scientist

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so I fed Python every play from the last 25 years

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over 1 million plays every pressure moment

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every game winning drive and then

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I let math and statistics decide

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who really performs the most

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when it matters the most and the most statistically

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clutch quarterback in NFL history is

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someone you definitely weren't expecting

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now analyzing

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patterns across 1 million football plays is not easy

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even with Python so I use today's sponsor

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Sphinx

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to help me process this massive dataset in Python

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to identify these statistical patterns that reveal

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who is the most clutch quarterback of all time

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more on Sphinx in a bit but before I reveal

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the most clutch quarterback of all time

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which I promise I will get to very soon

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let's start a timer for 30 seconds

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we have a huge problem what even is clutch

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it's pretty hard to define

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but we know it happens during crunch time right

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and that we can basically say

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is when the game is almost over and the score is close

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for now we'll say that

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clutch time is when the score is within one touchdown

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so that's like Seven Points

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and it's in the last eighth of the game

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or the last 7:30 of the fourth quarter

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or it's in overtime but even then

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how do we quantify clutch

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like numerically well

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we'll use two different definitions today

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No. 1 TV clutch and No. 2

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advanced analytics clutch

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let's go ahead and start with TV clutch

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coming in at No. 10 on TV Clutch is Josh Freeman

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surprisingly now

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I know he didn't have an incredible career

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but he definitely has some highlight moments

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now this one kind of surprised me

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I did not see Josh Freeman being on this list

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but he did have one really good season

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so maybe that's playing a big factor

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No.9 is the controversial Aaron Rodgers

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and this shouldn't be a huge surprise

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as Aaron has had a ton of clutch plays

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throughout his entire career

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specifically with the Green Bay Packers

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No.8 is Tony Romo yes

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that is the now lead NFL analyst for CBS

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who makes some very strange noises sometimes

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but he had some very clutch plays for the Cowboys

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back in the day coming in at No. 7 is Rich Gannon

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I'm going to be honest I had to look him up

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he's a little bit before my time

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but it looks like he had a little bit of a late

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career resurgence with the Oakland Raiders

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and ultimately

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won the league MVP and took them to the Super Bowl

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No.6 is disappointingly Deshaun Watson

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not much to say here so moving on to No. 5

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and it's the Greatest Show on Turf

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Mr Kurt Warner fantastic story of going undrafted

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to almost getting kicked out of the NFL

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two league MVP and Super Bowl champion

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No.4 is Jake Delhomme his season in 2,003

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LED the Carolina Panthers to the Super Bowl

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earning the team the nickname the Cardiac Cats

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due to the numerous

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game winning drives in the fourth quarter

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or overtime and those are all really things to Delhomme

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he set a franchise record

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with seven game winning drives

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in that 2003 season alone

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No. 3 is Andrew Luck and man

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I totally get why he retired early

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like I I make sense

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but I would have loved to see the rest of his career

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because he was absolutely incredible

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and was a very clutch coming in at No. 2

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it should really surprise no one

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it's Patrick Mahomes don't need to say much here

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he is very clutch

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he's been on an incredible run the last eight years

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leading to three Super Bowl wins

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in five Super Bowl appearances

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the only surprise here is he wasn't No. 1

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and lastly at No. 1

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the most clutch quarterback via TV is Tom Tua

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Tonga Vaiaoloa yes

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somehow Tua is the most clutch quarterback of all time

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it's not Tom Brady question Mark

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I don't get it if you know much about the NFL

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you'll know that this result

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it's kind of crazy

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Tua isn't exactly known as a clutch quarterback

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and honestly kind of has a reputation of being

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maybe the opposite of clutch

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so with that

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let's talk about how he came up with his top 10

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and the analytics that LED us to this point

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so what is TV clutch well

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it's a term that our AI data science co pilot

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Sphinx created for us

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it combines things that we can easily see on TV

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in terms of clutchness touchdowns

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interceptions completion percentages

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those types of things

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as well as how often they were in clutch situations

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so let's rewind for a second here

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and I'll tell you how we got this top 10

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and how you can replicate this exact same analysis

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on your own even if you're not a programmer

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you're not very technical at all

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and you don't know Python

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so I start out by using NFL versus

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Python package called NFL Data

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Pie to download the last 25 years of play by play data

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but instead of taking hours to understand how this API

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works and write all the code myself

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I just asked Sphinx to get the data for me

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in plain English

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Sphinx then went and read all of the API docs

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to understand how the API works

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and automatically wrote the code

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for me to get all that play by play data

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now could I have done that all on my own

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absolutely it just would have taken me a lot of time

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and I'm trying to pump out

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really high quality episodes

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for you guys

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so it was really nice to have a little bit of a co

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pilot to write this code for me

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it ended up retrieving the last 25 seasons

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which averages to around 45,000 plays per season

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which is a total of 1.18 million rows of data

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and it has 300 columns that let us know who is playing

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where the ball is what the result of the play and a lot

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lot more pretty sweet right

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awesome dataset well

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of course we actually aren't interested

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in all 1.18 million plays

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only the plays that fit the clutch criteria

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that we stated earlier

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which is basically the last 1/8 of a one score game

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and so all I needed to do was tell Sphinx that

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that's what I'm interested in doing

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and it will create this filter for me on my data

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so you notice I just spell it out in plain English

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and tell exactly what I want

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and the cool part is

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it's actually smart enough to find the right column

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names to do this filter

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as well as do things like check for missing data

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without me explicitly telling it to do so

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and finally it writes the code to do the filter

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and now we have a Python data frame

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with only the plays that fall into our clutch category

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next

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we want to analyze the quarterback part of our data

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because this is play by play data

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which has data about

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everyone and everything that's going on

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but we're really only interested

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in clutch quarterback performance

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and you'll see in the data

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that we definitely

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have a lot of quarterback names going on

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as well as whether it was a completed pass

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whether it was a touchdown

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or whether was an interception

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yards completed all that good stuff

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now this is where we can ask our co pilot

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Sphinx to analyze all the existing plays

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and using only touchdowns

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interceptions completion percentage

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yards and clutch attempts

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we can tell it to create a TV Clutch Factor score

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and ask it to rank by the most clutch quarterbacks

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based upon that score now Sphinx

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our copilot gets to work

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and first it does the aggregation

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for all of the quarterback pass plays

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and calculates all of the completions and touchdowns

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interceptions and the yards gained

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as a reminder our data was the play by play data

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not quarterback clutch season stats

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so this step is absolutely necessary

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to kind of clean the data

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aggregate it

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manipulate it in a way that makes it usable for us

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then this code calculates what's called a Z score

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for each one of those different metrics

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if you're unfamiliar with the Z score

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it's basically a measure

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of how many standard deviations

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a specific data point is

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away from the mean of that data set

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indicating its position within a distribution

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which is basically in layman's terms

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how much better or worse is a quarterback

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from the average quarterback

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based on these stats basically

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this is what you need to know

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a Z score of 0 means you're very average quarterback

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a Z score of 1 means you're above average

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and a Z score of negative 1 means you're below average

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for that particular stat

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our python code then creates a formula

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where the touchdown Z scores

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the yard Z scores

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and the completion percentage scores are all good

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and interceptions the scores are bad

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and out of the other end of this formula

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comes our top 10 list from earlier

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with the most clutch quarterbacks

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where Tua Tonga by Lowa

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somehow is the most clutch quarterback of all time

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now if this is your first time seeing Sphinx

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hopefully you realize how cool it is

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and how useful it can be

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it's basically a co pilot for anyone working with data

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it currently ships as a VS code extension

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that interfaces with Jupiter

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and other compatible notebooks

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it runs in your environments alongside you

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which first makes it safe and second

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makes it easy to use

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and it can access data through Python APIs

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or it even has MCP

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capabilities with things like snowflake

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or Databricks or Big Query or Salesforce

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whatever you're using

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and you can learn more about Sphinx

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and get started for free

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using the link in the description down below

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now once again if you know anything about football

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you'd really question how on earth

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can the current quarterback of the Miami Dolphins

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Tua Tonga Vealua

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be the most clutch quarterback of all time

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and is it like

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possible that Tony Romo can even be in the top 10

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and the answer to that is I don't know

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it's hard to know but we only really use basic stats

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like touchdowns and completions and interceptions

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earlier and that is a little bit basic

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the good news is that the NFL stat heads

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all of these NFL data analysts and data scientists

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and all these smart people

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have created other stats that are able to capture

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how unique and how clutch a play is

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and one of the things they created is called the win

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probability added or WPA for short

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and it's a bit hard to understand

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and it would be an entirely

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separate video to explain it in full

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but basically every play in a football game changes

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the chance that a team wins

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or loses but specifically wins

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WPA measures how much that play changes your odds

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so for example in 2024 the Washington Commanders

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were losing to the Chicago Bears

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15 to 12

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the commanders had the ball with two seconds left

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on their own 48 yard line

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they basically had a current chance of winning of 17%

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Jaden Daniels is playing quarterback and as you can see

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he drops back he's has to throw this

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now basically they have to score a touchdown

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so he has to throw it 60 yards 17% chance of winning

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they score a touchdown

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they win and you can kind of see that

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he has to run away from all these guys

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trying to sack him goes to the other side of the field

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he's now look at this

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he's at his 30 yard line he has to throw it 70 yards

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there's the ball being thrown

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it's in the air flies up

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you'll see that

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the ball pops out and is caught for a touchdown

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and Washington wins the game

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now

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that is a very high WPA because the time has expired

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there's no time left they'll now be at 18 points

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and they have beaten the bears pretty much

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no matter what happens cause there's no time left

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so obviously that play was a very high WPA

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now a WPA of 0

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would be a play that does not change

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the effect of the game at all

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for example most kickoffs that result in a touchback

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have a WPA of zero

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cause it's a standard play that happens multiple times

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the game and doesn't really affect what happens

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it's really just like okay

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the ball starts on

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like the 30 yard line or whatever it is

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a negative WPA

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would be when the offense makes a really

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costly mistake where they were going to win the game

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but now they're probably not

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for example this Josh Allen interception

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in this situation it is overtime

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the bills are playing the Minnesota Vikings

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the Vikings are winning 33 to 30

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but Buffalo the bills

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have the ball with Josh Allen as quarterback there

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is a minute left and they're on the 20 yard line

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so all Josh Allen has to do is score a touchdown

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and the game is over and the bills win

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and Josh Allen's really good

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so there is a current 74% chance of winning

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when this ball is snapped

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you'll see that Josh Allen gets the ball

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he looks he looks pump fakes throws interception

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the Vikings have the ball and they slide

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and now Vikings end the game

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because you only get one possession

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I think at this time during the NFL

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but even if that wasn't the case

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they could just kneel and the game would be all over

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so the game officially is over

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Josh Allen has thrown a game losing interception

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to make his team lose that would be extremely low

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uh WPA

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in fact they went from a 74% chance of winning to a 0%

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so that's negative point seven four not good

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now that we understand WPA

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we know that a high positive value means you are clutch

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and a low

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negative value means you are the opposite of clutch

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the play by play data that we actually downloaded

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has WPA for every single play

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which is really awesome for us

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because that means that we can ask Sphinx

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to find the 10 most clutch quarterbacks

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based on WPA so we can literally ask Sphinx you know

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find these 10 quarterbacks

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give us a total WPA an average WPA and sort the table

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descendingly by the total WPA

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and Sphinx will create its game plan

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over here on the left hand side

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not a football game plan but a data science game plan

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and then start writing the code itself to

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to do this analysis

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and finally it will give us our results

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so starting at No. 10 we have Aaron Rodgers

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once again he was No. 9 on our TV clutch list

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so this is not a huge surprise here

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anyway you slice it

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Aaron Rodgers was a pretty clutch quarterback

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is he now I don't know

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but back in the day he was

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No.9 is another current quarterback

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and that is Mr Cool Joe Burrow

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and there's a reason he has that name you guys

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this guy performs when it means the most

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and is able to make the big throws

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when the game is in his hands

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No.8

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is a name that I hadn't heard of in a really long time

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and it honestly really surprised me

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Carson Palmer if you're anything like me

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you haven't thought about that in a while

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but while he was playing

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he had some pretty clutch moments

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No.7 was on our previous list as well

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and it's Andrew Luck once again

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this guy was on the trajectory of becoming

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one of the best quarterbacks

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of all time and it's a shame

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we didn't get to watch the rest of his career

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No. 6 is Matthew Stafford

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also a current quarterback and it's well deserved

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he is one of my favorite clutch plays ever

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and he's really like

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done a lot of clutch things in his career

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both as the Lions quarterback

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and now as the Rams quarterback

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No. 5 is NFL legend Peyton Manning

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yes before he did all the broadcasting stuff

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he was a really good quarterback

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and made some absolutely clutch plays

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No. 4 is Patrick Mahomes

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and I was honestly kind of like

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I can't believe he's so low on this list

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but once again very clutch quarterback

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has been on an absolute tear with the Chiefs

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and has made a lot of the biggest throws

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in NFL history No.3 is Big Ben Roethlisberger

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a Steelers legend was in it forever

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made some great clutch plays

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No. 2 on this list actually kind of surprised me

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but it's kind of surprised

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we haven't seen his name so much at all anymore

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because he was such a good quarterback during his day

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and that is Drew Brees

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legend for the New Orleans Saints

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always seems to make really good completions

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like his percentage was always so high

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wasn't doing anything fancy ever

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but like pass after pass after pass

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he just like charged down the field

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and No. 1 the No. 1 clutch quarterback of all time

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as defined by total WPA across his entire career is

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drum roll please

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the goat himself

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Mister Tom Brady so in the end

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data science

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kind of already proved what we already knew

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deep down right there you have it

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the 10 most clutch quarterbacks

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as proven by data science

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now I challenge you to make your own clutch list

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especially if you hate this clutch list

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let me know in the comments down below if you hate it

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and why you think I'm wrong

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but you can create your own by downloading Sphinx

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using the link below

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and you can get my own Jupiter notebook

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and play around with my code template

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create something similar with football and actually

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you know change the parameters of clutch

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or use a different metric

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instead of WPA you can use something called EPA

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which is another one of those crazy NFL advanced stats

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or you can do something totally different

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and do it with the NBA or with soccer

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or with cricket or you don't have to do sports at all

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that is the beauty of something like Sphinx

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is it helps you create awesome analysis

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that would take you hours on your own

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and probably will still take you hours with Sphinx

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but a lot faster I'm excited to see what you make

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and I'm excited to see you

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hit the subscribe button as well right

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see you in the next one

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Data Career Podcast: Helping You Land a Data Analyst Job FAST
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Avery Smith

Avery Smith is the host of The Data Career Podcast & founder of Data Career Jumpstart, an online platform dedicated to helping individuals transition into and advance within the data analytics field. After studying chemical engineering in college, Avery pivoted his career into data, and later earned a Masters in Data Analytics from Georgia Tech. He’s worked as a data analyst, data engineer, and data scientist for companies like Vaporsens, ExxonMobil, Harley Davidson, MIT, and the Utah Jazz. Avery lives in the mountains of Utah where he enjoys running, skiing, & hiking with his wife, dog, and new born baby.